Just posted to my Forbes column about a new and sobering analysis on how AI could reshape teen employment in the U.S. … and why teens may be hit harder than adults.
The research comes from Karissa Tang, a California high school senior who analyzed public data and existing studies to estimate that AI could eliminate more than one in four teen jobs by 2030. The losses are concentrated exactly where teens work today: cashiers, fast food counters, retail sales and entry-level customer service. While estimates like those from MIT suggest AI may affect about 12% of the overall workforce, Tang argues that number hides a major concentration risk. Teens cluster in the most automatable roles—and there are a lot of them. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, about 5.6 million teens were employed in 2024.
Tang’s path to this research started close to home, with her aunt’s boba tea shop replacing cashiers with ordering kiosks. From there, she built a 20-page paper projecting a 54% drop in teen cashier jobs, steep declines in fast food and retail roles, and fewer losses in jobs requiring mobility or human interaction. Tang herself interns at University of California, Los Angeles, has worked in venture capital, and even launched a board game company on Kickstarter—a reminder that adaptability matters.
The bigger issue isn’t just lost paychecks. Early jobs teach responsibility, social skills and work habits—and those first rungs on the career ladder are starting to wobble. Tang’s recommendations focus on digital literacy, critical thinking, alternative pathways like apprenticeships and internships, and more support for entrepreneurship. I discussed all of this with her recently on the TechFirst podcast and it’s a conversation parents, educators and policymakers should be paying close attention to.