Half of current Apple Watch owners are likely to upgrade to the new version that Apple will start shipping on Friday, according to data from a 2,500-person survey by Fluent.
If true, this means that Apple should sell 15 million units over the next 12 months without adding a single net new Apple Watch owner, since the company has sold about 32 million Apple Watches to date. Add in some net new buyers, and Apple has a shot at selling more Apple Watches over the next year than it has since launching the device category in April 2015.